Dow
Long52823.0
Last · 3 bars since last turn
- 1M +1.4% Buy & hold -1.8% Excess +3.2%
- 3M +5.7% Buy & hold +1.3% Excess +4.4%
- 6M +11.6% Buy & hold +11.2% Excess +0.4%
- 1Y +24.2% Buy & hold +15.2% Excess +9.0%
CrowdMood desk
Oil is tight. The 10-year is the wrecking ball. AI already spent 2035.
CrowdMood is a research desk for a world where energy inflation, market rates, and pulled-forward AI multiples matter more than a single confidence print. We publish the thesis, CrowdMood Trident on Dow, Nasdaq 100, WTI, gold, euro FX, and KOSPI 200, and still keep a household-mood board — because the consumer is how the squeeze shows up in tickets.
CrowdMood Trident
CrowdMood Trident is a proprietary overlay on Dow, Nasdaq 100, WTI, gold, euro FX, and KOSPI 200. We publish stance and a sample track — not the recipe. Research, not a ticket.
Nasdaq 100
Long28896.0
Last · 31 bars since last turn
- 1M +2.6% Buy & hold -4.1% Excess +6.7%
- 3M +1.2% Buy & hold -6.6% Excess +7.8%
- 6M +8.8% Buy & hold +15.1% Excess -6.3%
- 1Y +12.1% Buy & hold +19.8% Excess -7.7%
Crude
Short103.9
Last · 5 bars since last turn
- 1M +16.3% Buy & hold +26.1% Excess -9.8%
- 3M +12.5% Buy & hold +34.4% Excess -21.9%
- 6M -18.2% Buy & hold +9.9% Excess -28.1%
- 1Y +12.5% Buy & hold +65.8% Excess -53.3%
Gold
Long4309.4
Last · 46 bars since last turn
- 1M +2.0% Buy & hold -2.9% Excess +4.9%
- 3M -2.4% Buy & hold -1.2% Excess -1.2%
- 6M +4.8% Buy & hold -12.6% Excess +17.4%
- 1Y +20.5% Buy & hold +17.3% Excess +3.2%
Euro
Long1.1579
Last · 8 bars since last turn
- 1M -1.0% Buy & hold -0.0% Excess -1.0%
- 3M -1.5% Buy & hold -0.5% Excess -1.0%
- 6M -0.7% Buy & hold -0.1% Excess -0.6%
- 1Y -1.2% Buy & hold -1.8% Excess +0.6%
KOSPI 200
Long105410
Last · 5 bars since last turn
- 1M -4.2% Buy & hold -4.2% Excess 0.0%
- 3M -24.1% Buy & hold -24.1% Excess 0.0%
- 6M +18.0% Buy & hold +18.0% Excess 0.0%
- 1Y +18.2% Buy & hold +125.6% Excess -107.4%
Next-bar, no costs, no slippage. Session bars in the downloaded sample. Not a live account and not a promised edge. Excess is Trident minus holding the contract.
Energy and war-premium notes
Read the deskDesk note 2026-09-14: oil, the 10-year, and the tape
Oil and the 10-year travelled together. That is the desk chain: energy tightness feeding goods inflation, then term premium, then a higher discount rate on duration. The funds rate is not the wrecking ball. The long end …
Desk note 2026-09-14: oil, the 10-year, and the tape
Oil and the 10-year travelled together. That is the desk chain: energy tightness feeding goods inflation, then term premium, then a higher discount rate on duration. The funds rate is not the wrecking ball. The long end …
The oil-tight case: depletion, fake spare capacity, and the EM car
This desk is oil-bullish for a geological and industrial reason, not a tweet. U.S. tier-one rock is aging, OPEC+ spare is mostly a press release, Russia is already near a peak, and emerging-market four-wheel demand is still climbing.
The Fed can cut. The 10-year can still wreck every asset that was duration in disguise
This desk treats the U.S. 10-year as the price of time, not a press conference. If energy inflation keeps the term premium alive, policy cuts do not save equity multiples, private credit, or housing lock-in.
The published chain
This desk is oil-bullish for geology and industrial demand, not a tweet. U.S. tier-one shale is aging, OPEC+ spare is mostly a press release, Russia is already near a peak, and emerging-market four-wheel demand still drinks. Energy inflation keeps the 10-year alive even if the Fed cuts. That discount rate — not the funds rate — is what pops duration in disguise: mega-cap, AI capex, housing lock-in, private credit. AI can be a real build and still be a bubble if 2035’s cash flows already live in today’s multiple.
Oil tightness
Depletion, undeliverable spare, a Russia that cannot swing, and the EM car. Energy is the inflation impulse policy rates cannot veto.
The 10-year
The funds rate is a short instrument. The 10-year marks private-credit NAVs, mortgages, and every story stock that promised cash in 2034.
AI duration
Capex can pour while the equity already spent the future. Watts and the long end are two jaws. We will keep saying that until the tape prices it.
Household mood — how the squeeze shows up in tickets
Household moodHousehold sector mood
Household moodRetail & e-commerce
52.7
+4.4
Housing & mortgages
46.7
-0.1
Autos & mobility
47.3
-0.7
Travel & leisure
58.4
-0.3
Food & staples
56.7
-1.0
Consumer tech
49.7
+2.8
Household energy
35.2
+1.3
Jobs & wages
57.2
-0.9
Latest research
Read the deskDesk note 2026-09-14: oil, the 10-year, and the tape
Oil and the 10-year travelled together. That is the desk chain: energy tightness feeding goods inflation, then term premium, then a higher discount rate on duration. The funds rate is not the wrecking ball. The long end …
Desk note 2026-09-14: oil, the 10-year, and the tape
Oil and the 10-year travelled together. That is the desk chain: energy tightness feeding goods inflation, then term premium, then a higher discount rate on duration. The funds rate is not the wrecking ball. The long end …
The oil-tight case: depletion, fake spare capacity, and the EM car
This desk is oil-bullish for a geological and industrial reason, not a tweet. U.S. tier-one rock is aging, OPEC+ spare is mostly a press release, Russia is already near a peak, and emerging-market four-wheel demand is still climbing.
The Fed can cut. The 10-year can still wreck every asset that was duration in disguise
This desk treats the U.S. 10-year as the price of time, not a press conference. If energy inflation keeps the term premium alive, policy cuts do not save equity multiples, private credit, or housing lock-in.
AI pulled 2035’s cash flows into 2024’s multiple. That is not a tech story. It is a duration story
Like the better skeptics of this cycle, this desk treats much of the AI complex as a valuation that already spent the future. Capex can be real and still be a bubble in the equity that claims it.
The Iran war premium is a freight and insurance number, not a cable-news emotion
Energy columns on this desk start from barrels, hulls, and the Strait — then maybe from speeches. A war premium that does not show up in freight, war-risk, or the front of the oil curve is a vibe.
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