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CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.5% +0.2 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.1 -0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 88.92 +0.2 US 10Y 5.154 +0.1 S&P 500 7561.0 -54.2 Nasdaq 100 27927.25 -457.2 Gold 3887.6 +2.3 Dow 52347.0 -43.0 Trident Dow LONG 52347.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7561.0 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 27927.25 Trident Crude LONG 88.92 Trident Gold LONG 3887.6 Trident Euro LONG 1.1036

CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.5% +0.2 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.1 -0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 88.92 +0.2 US 10Y 5.154 +0.1 S&P 500 7561.0 -54.2 Nasdaq 100 27927.25 -457.2 Gold 3887.6 +2.3 Dow 52347.0 -43.0 Trident Dow LONG 52347.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7561.0 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 27927.25 Trident Crude LONG 88.92 Trident Gold LONG 3887.6 Trident Euro LONG 1.1036

Macro research

Filling the Subterranean Vaults

This development matters for oil tightness because structural expansions of national storage capacity alter the immediate destination of physical crude flows. When a major importing nation like India constructs massive underground vaults designed to hold millions of tons of forei

Latest desk note

2026-11-13

India is seeking private investors to build and operate the nation's largest strategic petroleum reserve site located at Chandikhol in the eastern Indian state of Odisha on the Bay of Bengal. The project aims to boost India's strategic petroleum reserve capacity by 80% with an estimated cost of $910 million, according to tender documents cited by local media.

The proposed site will be capable of holding up to 4 million tons of crude oil. To support private participation, the Indian government is offering a grant of $546 million, which translates to 51.4 billion Indian rupees, to facilitate the development.

Read the full note

Start here: reading guides

Fertilizer prices into the next grain season: urea, phosphate, potash, and the diesel line on the farm bill

Grain is quiet until the fertilizer buffer is used. Read current urea, DAP, and potash distributor quotes next to farm diesel and the WASDE stocks path before…

How to read China’s teapot valve: quotas, margins, and run rates — not younger rock

When oil softens on “China demand,” check the non-state import quota, Shandong independent margins, and run rates. Teapots are a valve on imports.

How to read a diesel crack: distillate stocks first, then the crude print

A high crude price and a high diesel crack are different claims. Read U.S. distillate inventories, East Coast buffers, and the crack versus crude before…

How to read gold against the U.S. 10-year: real yield first, war headline second

Gold pays no coupon. The clean opportunity cost is the 10-year real yield. Split the nominal 10-year into real yield and breakeven before reading a war or…

How to read Hormuz, Petroline, and Bab el-Mandeb: three doors, not one oil map

A Middle East oil headline is a claim about a door. Check Hormuz throughput, whether Petroline to Yanbu is open, and whether Asia-bound cargoes still need Bab…

What an SPR release actually moves: barrels into Gulf Coast pipes, not global geology

An SPR draw puts crude into U.S. Gulf Coast logistics. Read the inventory level, the legal floor, the exchange terms, and which refinery is short before…

Core market indicators

2026-11-13 22:41 UTC · delayed data

WTIDelayed market data

88.92

+0.18 · +0.20%

Yahoo Finance chart data · 2026-11-13 22:41 UTC

US 10YDelayed market data

5.154%

+5.1 bp

Yahoo Finance chart data · 2026-11-13 22:41 UTC

S&P 500Delayed market data

7,561.00

-54.25 · -0.71%

Yahoo Finance chart data · 2026-11-13 22:41 UTC

Nasdaq 100Delayed market data

27,927.25

-457.25 · -1.61%

Yahoo Finance chart data · 2026-11-13 22:41 UTC

GoldDelayed market data

3,887.60

+2.30 · +0.06%

Yahoo Finance chart data · 2026-11-13 22:41 UTC

Yield changes use basis points; price changes use points and percent. These feeds are not synchronized live ticks.

Latest research

Read the research

Column · Column2026-11-13

Filling the Subterranean Vaults

This development matters for oil tightness because structural expansions of national storage capacity alter the immediate destination of physical crude flows.

Column · Column2026-11-07

Unlocking Sanctioned Hulls When Freight Bites

This update matters for oil tightness because it exposes how administrative doors can act as severe physical bottlenecks when maritime logistics tighten.

Macro · Data update2026-11-07

Jobs 2026-10: labor can hold while the long end still bites

Nonfarm payrolls 159,293 (+165k, 2026-10) · Unemployment 4.1 (-0.10 from prior, 2026-10). The desk read Labor that holds up does not give equities a hall pass.

Column · Column2026-11-06

Escalation Risks Threaten the Strait of Hormuz

This development matters for oil tightness because political escalation directly threatens the physical doors through which Middle Eastern crude must pass to reach global buyers.

Column · Column2026-11-05

When the Domestic Tank Runs Low

This development matters for oil tightness because it reveals how quickly domestic refining balances can pivot to absorb regional barrels when local inventories run down.

Column · Column2026-11-04

When the Strait Becomes a Minefield

This development matters for oil tightness because it demonstrates how quickly nominal production can be rendered irrelevant when physical maritime doors face kinetic denial.

CrowdMood Trident

2026-11-13 22:41 UTC · Cached 20 min

CrowdMood Trident is a long/short overlay on Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, WTI, gold, and euro FX. Stance and a sample track versus buy-and-hold.

Dow

Last · 6 bars since last turn

2026-11-13 21:00 UTC · E-mini Dow. Trident overlay.

2Y +19.2% Buy & hold +20.5% Excess -1.3%
1Y +14.6% Buy & hold +14.9% Excess -0.3%
6M +7.8% Buy & hold +7.9% Excess -0.1%
3M -2.0% Buy & hold -0.5% Excess -1.5%
1M -2.2% Buy & hold +3.3% Excess -5.5%

Open track →

S&P 500

Last · 7 bars since last turn

2026-11-13 21:00 UTC · E-mini S&P 500. Duration prong.

2Y +10.1% Buy & hold +24.0% Excess -13.9%
1Y +1.1% Buy & hold +15.1% Excess -14.0%
6M +2.2% Buy & hold +4.1% Excess -1.9%
3M +0.3% Buy & hold -0.9% Excess +1.2%
1M -0.4% Buy & hold -0.4% Excess 0.0%

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Nasdaq 100

Last · 33 bars since last turn

2026-11-13 21:00 UTC · E-mini Nasdaq 100. Duration prong.

2Y +43.7% Buy & hold +37.8% Excess +5.9%
1Y +10.7% Buy & hold +13.4% Excess -2.7%
6M +5.3% Buy & hold -1.5% Excess +6.8%
3M +4.0% Buy & hold -2.1% Excess +6.1%
1M -2.1% Buy & hold -2.1% Excess 0.0%

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Crude

Last · 11 bars since last turn

2026-11-13 21:00 UTC · WTI. Trident overlay.

2Y +22.7% Buy & hold +101.2% Excess -78.5%
1Y -11.6% Buy & hold +136.2% Excess -147.8%
6M +6.1% Buy & hold +34.3% Excess -28.2%
3M +13.2% Buy & hold +26.6% Excess -13.4%
1M -3.6% Buy & hold +3.7% Excess -7.3%

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Gold

Last · 24 bars since last turn

2026-11-13 21:00 UTC · Comex gold. Real-rate prong.

2Y +0.3% Buy & hold +93.0% Excess -92.7%
1Y -10.8% Buy & hold +19.7% Excess -30.5%
6M -13.5% Buy & hold -8.7% Excess -4.8%
3M -10.2% Buy & hold -10.8% Excess +0.6%
1M -5.8% Buy & hold -5.8% Excess 0.0%

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Euro

Last · 23 bars since last turn

2026-11-13 21:00 UTC · Euro FX. Liquidity prong.

2Y +10.0% Buy & hold +5.2% Excess +4.8%
1Y -8.4% Buy & hold -5.3% Excess -3.1%
6M -7.6% Buy & hold -5.2% Excess -2.4%
3M -7.1% Buy & hold -4.7% Excess -2.4%
1M -2.9% Buy & hold -1.3% Excess -1.6%

Open track →

Yahoo vendor futures series, with no heuristic roll-gap deletion. Next-bar model return. Long and short. About two years when available. No costs. Not a live account.

Household mood

UTC-dated educational composites. Ordinary band: 40–60.

US Consumer Mood 62.8

+0.1 Overheated

Europe Consumer Mood 48.3

-2.3 Contracting

Korea Consumer Mood 50.1