Desk note 2026-09-14: oil, the 10-year, and the tape
Official and near-official prints this round: US CPI 334.131 (+1.318, 2026-08-01), US unemployment 4.1 (0, 2026-08-01), WTI spot 97.26 (+3.05, 2026-09-09), US 10Y 4.95 (+0.12, 2026-09-10). Tape: WTI 104.18 (4.13), US 10Y 4.987 (0.012).
On the desk chain
Oil and the 10-year travelled together. That is the desk chain: energy tightness feeding goods inflation, then term premium, then a higher discount rate on duration. The funds rate is not the wrecking ball. The long end is. The CPI print did not volunteer to be transitory. Crude’s prong is already fading a stretch even as the spot print rose: tape first, speech second.
Trident
WTI short · Gold stand · Dow long · Nasdaq 100 stand · KOSPI 200 stand · Euro long. Stance only. Construction unpublished. If crude confirms a Strait scare, or Nasdaq stays long while the 10-year lurches, believe the tape first.
This note is education, not a ticket. The next note is a check on this one.