Official CPI, PPI, inflation expectations, and public factory surveys.
CPI and PPI are BLS prints via FRED, shown as 12-month percent change. Michigan is the University of Michigan 12-month inflation expectation. ISM PMI is licensed and not on this public tape; Philly Fed, Empire State, and Dallas Fed are the open factory surveys, 0 = no change. Chicago Fed activity is 0 at trend.
2026-09-01 · FRED
Official CPI, PPI, and Fed factory prints.
NowOverheating
Activity is hot while prices and household inflation expectations are still sticky. That is late-cycle heat, not a free lunch.
3MOverheating
The 10-year stays the wrecking ball if energy does not cool. Duration does not get a hall pass.
6MLate cycle
The desk still treats oil tightness and term premium as the constraint, not a funds-rate slogan.
1YLate cycle
The desk still treats oil tightness and term premium as the constraint, not a funds-rate slogan.